2016-17 Cardinals Offseason News

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Re: 2016-17 Cardinals Offseason News

Postby EOCF » Thu Dec 15, 2016 10:51 am

I can't get a link to post on here from my phone, but I've read a couple different articles from the SPD and CBS saying the Cards should and are, kicking the tires on Bautista, Trumbo and Encarnacion. A lot of it will depend on which player is willing to break and take a high AAV, one or two year deal.

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Re: 2016-17 Cardinals Offseason News

Postby R27 » Thu Dec 15, 2016 11:58 am

I don't really buy the Bautista, as we don't really have a need for another outfielder, unless they're going to make Grichuk a fourth OFer, but I could definitely see them chase Trumbo or Encarnacion in the right situation.
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Re: 2016-17 Cardinals Offseason News

Postby mhardy_03 » Thu Dec 15, 2016 12:03 pm

EOCF wrote:I can't get a link to post on here from my phone, but I've read a couple different articles from the SPD and CBS saying the Cards should and are, kicking the tires on Bautista, Trumbo and Encarnacion. A lot of it will depend on which player is willing to break and take a high AAV, one or two year deal.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-h ... order-bat/

I never really thought about Bautista, but he would make sense too. Especially since he has the ability to play corner OF if needed.
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Re: 2016-17 Cardinals Offseason News

Postby mhardy_03 » Thu Dec 15, 2016 12:03 pm

R27 wrote:I don't really buy the Bautista, as we don't really have a need for another outfielder, unless they're going to make Grichuk a fourth OFer, but I could definitely see them chase Trumbo or Encarnacion in the right situation.

He would play 1B primarily, but have the ability to play OF if needed. More flexibility.
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Re: 2016-17 Cardinals Offseason News

Postby R27 » Thu Dec 15, 2016 12:18 pm

mhardy_03 wrote:
R27 wrote:I don't really buy the Bautista, as we don't really have a need for another outfielder, unless they're going to make Grichuk a fourth OFer, but I could definitely see them chase Trumbo or Encarnacion in the right situation.

He would play 1B primarily, but have the ability to play OF if needed. More flexibility.

Yuck. I'll pass. Didn't we learn our lesson with flexibility last year? These guys are't considered flexible because they're really good at multiple positions, they're viewed as flexible because they're equally bad at multiple positions. That's the kind of flexibility we had last year and a big reason why they were packing up the first week of October instead of preparing for the playoffs.

Ian Desmond, who can play a plus shortstop and corner outfield and probably a decent third, flexible. Bautista, Trumbo, and Encarnacion, who is negative defensively at every position, not flexible.
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Re: 2016-17 Cardinals Offseason News

Postby mhardy_03 » Thu Dec 15, 2016 2:10 pm

R27 wrote:
mhardy_03 wrote:
R27 wrote:I don't really buy the Bautista, as we don't really have a need for another outfielder, unless they're going to make Grichuk a fourth OFer, but I could definitely see them chase Trumbo or Encarnacion in the right situation.

He would play 1B primarily, but have the ability to play OF if needed. More flexibility.

Yuck. I'll pass. Didn't we learn our lesson with flexibility last year? These guys are't considered flexible because they're really good at multiple positions, they're viewed as flexible because they're equally bad at multiple positions. That's the kind of flexibility we had last year and a big reason why they were packing up the first week of October instead of preparing for the playoffs.

Ian Desmond, who can play a plus shortstop and corner outfield and probably a decent third, flexible. Bautista, Trumbo, and Encarnacion, who is negative defensively at every position, not flexible.

Eh, the way I see it is that Bautista would be below average at 1B (he has played there although sparingly). Carpenter is below average at 1B. At worst it makes our infield defense slightly worse but gives options and protects against an injury to someone in the OF. Not talking about playing him at 3B again.

The bigger concern for me with Bautista is whether or not last season's downturn in production was due to an injury that he is now healed from or from age.
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Re: 2016-17 Cardinals Offseason News

Postby R27 » Thu Dec 15, 2016 2:44 pm

mhardy_03 wrote:Eh, the way I see it is that Bautista would be below average at 1B (he has played there although sparingly). Carpenter is below average at 1B. At worst it makes our infield defense slightly worse but gives options and protects against an injury to someone in the OF. Not talking about playing him at 3B again.

The bigger concern for me with Bautista is whether or not last season's downturn in production was due to an injury that he is now healed from or from age.

Carpenter was actually plus at first base last year (+1 defensive runs saved in 312 innings, +4 UZR/150), and I believe that if he were to play there every day would be a good option there (the more he's switched positions, the worse his defensive numbers have typically been that year). I do think Carpenter can be average at second or third as well, given that he actually stays there and isn't playing three different positions a week. So I think he's fine wherever you want to put him as long as you commit to keeping him there.

I'm not actually sold on any of these three being a passable first baseman. With Bautista, I'd rather put him in LF, Grichuk in RF, and move Piscotty to first. The hope is that these guys more than make up for it on offense, but as we should have learned last year that it doesn't always work that way when it comes to winning games.
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Re: 2016-17 Cardinals Offseason News

Postby chevyman58 » Wed Jan 04, 2017 6:48 am

While the exact phrase “best shape of his life” was not used, Brian Stull of WGNU 920AM in St. Louis reports that Adams lost 25 pounds during the offseason. Adams says his swing is “even stronger” and is excited for the 2017 season.
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Re: 2016-17 Cardinals Offseason News

Postby Tulcard » Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:31 am

Well, I think we need to hold onto Adams. With unknown injuries that will surface, slumps, etc. that will arise during the season he will be an asset. Plus he is affordable.... 8-)
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Re: 2016-17 Cardinals Offseason News

Postby mhardy_03 » Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:36 am

chevyman58 wrote:While the exact phrase “best shape of his life” was not used, Brian Stull of WGNU 920AM in St. Louis reports that Adams lost 25 pounds during the offseason. Adams says his swing is “even stronger” and is excited for the 2017 season.

And then this. Although I don't think it makes much sense unless the Royals want to keep salary right where it is and the deal is Adams for Dyson. Even that I'm not sure would be all that great for the Cards.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/m ... oyals.html
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Re: 2016-17 Cardinals Offseason News

Postby R27 » Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:16 pm

mhardy_03 wrote:
chevyman58 wrote:While the exact phrase “best shape of his life” was not used, Brian Stull of WGNU 920AM in St. Louis reports that Adams lost 25 pounds during the offseason. Adams says his swing is “even stronger” and is excited for the 2017 season.

And then this. Although I don't think it makes much sense unless the Royals want to keep salary right where it is and the deal is Adams for Dyson. Even that I'm not sure would be all that great for the Cards.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/m ... oyals.html

My understanding of it all is that it became known that the Royals had talked about Adams prior to them acquiring a guy yesterday from the Diamondbacks instead of Adams. I don't think it's an active look anymore.

Adams losing a bunch of weight scares me. Every time a player has done that, whether it be Lynn or Molina, their performance has suffered right off the bat and it's taken them awhile to rebuild on top of their "new" body.
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Re: 2016-17 Cardinals Offseason News

Postby chevyman58 » Wed Jan 04, 2017 5:20 pm

With the exception of Yadi. His power declined, but his innings increased both times & his Avg & OB% increased.
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Re: 2016-17 Cardinals Offseason News

Postby R27 » Wed Jan 04, 2017 5:50 pm

chevyman58 wrote:With the exception of Yadi. His power declined, but his innings increased both times & his Avg & OB% increased.

Not initially.

He lost his weight prior to the 2015 season. Hit .282 with 7 HR and slugged .386 the season before, hit .270 with 4 HR and slugged .350 after in his worst offensive season since 2006. Innings increased because he didn't miss 8-12 weeks after tagging a guy at home plate.

Lynn lost his weight prior to the 2013 season. Had a 3.78 ERA in 2012, and didn't go much further up to 3.97, but hit a wall in the summer.

Now, both moves I feel have benefited the players a year out, but the year they did it was not good. For Adams, whose future with STL is really dependent on this year, not sure it's a good thing.
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Re: 2016-17 Cardinals Offseason News

Postby chevyman58 » Thu Jan 05, 2017 4:51 am

I don't think it fair to go back to a comparative reference of his woeful 2006. His '15 season virtually identical to 2010. If you objectively adjust for his higher walk rate in '10 and attribute that to a consistently lower position in the batting order 15/10 season comparatives become arguable.

He had a couple stretches prior where he was out with knee soreness as well as a prior thumb/hand issues. I wasn't referencing his innings increase against his abbreviated 2014 season. Seems to me that he didn't have the overall, obvious letdown after weight loss that we've seen in others. And, overall, I wouldn't consider his '15 season 'not good'.

When looking at his stats it's amazing to see the number of stolen bases the guy had for several years there. Amazing.
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Re: 2016-17 Cardinals Offseason News

Postby R27 » Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:42 am

chevyman58 wrote:I don't think it fair to go back to a comparative reference of his woeful 2006. His '15 season virtually identical to 2010. If you objectively adjust for his higher walk rate in '10 and attribute that to a consistently lower position in the batting order 15/10 season comparatives become arguable.

He had a couple stretches prior where he was out with knee soreness as well as a prior thumb/hand issues. I wasn't referencing his innings increase against his abbreviated 2014 season. Seems to me that he didn't have the overall, obvious letdown after weight loss that we've seen in others. And, overall, I wouldn't consider his '15 season 'not good'.

When looking at his stats it's amazing to see the number of stolen bases the guy had for several years there. Amazing.

The number I'm using to reference his performance is OPS+, which is normalized for ballpark and league.

Yadi had an 80 OPS+ in 2015, down from a 102 OPS+ in 2014. So he was objectively 22% worse in 2015 compared to 2014.

Now, as you say, 2010 was close, he had an 85 OPS+. But when I'm saying, "His worst season since..." that's how I'm figuring it and the only season with a lower OPS+ was 2006 with a 53 OPS+. So 2010 was close, but still slightly better.

We seem to have to disagree, but I don't think it was a coincidence at all that he lost a bunch of weight and then had one of the worst seasons of his career. It takes time to not only lose the weight, but to build strength back the way you want/need it. I don't think you can do that in 3-4 months. And then on top of all of that, you have to figure out how to play with your new body.
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