2017 Be the GM Thread

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mhardy_03
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby mhardy_03 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 1:26 pm

With all the talking with TB we have been hearing about, I am going to just put this out here.

I think the Cards are going to make a deal for Archer, Colome, and Longoria. The top 3 parts in the deal going back to TB are Kelly, Fernandez, and one of Weaver and Flaherty. Plus several other lesser guys will be in the deal.

My prediction. Not going to happen, but just throwing it out there. Fire away. :lol:
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby Tulcard » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:20 pm

You never know. It could happen. Depends on what we would have to give up in return (as always) and how much of Longoria's contract if any the Rays would assume. I've read that they do want to move Longoria before he becomes a 5/10 guy right after the season begins. We'll see. Hopefully we'll know something within the next couple of weeks.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby mhardy_03 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:59 pm

I have to think they would not eat any of his contract but lower the asking price since it seems like they are going to really want to move him before the season starts. That is quite a haul IMO, gets them out from under Longoria contract, and cashes in a couple good pieces now for several good pieces later. Possibly when they have a better chance at competing with the Yankees and Red Sox.

Like I said, that exact trade won't happen, but I could see those three being dealt. And if they are, I hope they are coming here because we fit them well. Improves our rotation, bullpen, and bench (with Gyorko at super utility again) all at once and all of them are controlled for 3+ years.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby R27 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:17 pm

They obviously prefer Donaldson out of all the third basemen, but for whatever reason Toronto doesn't want to trade after finishing a game out of last and the top two teams in the division getting stronger.

I think you trade for Machado. Trade for Archer and Colome. Spin off Gyorko. Give Machado what he wants to bring him back.

For the next couple years you've got C Molina, 1B Carpenter, 2B Wong, SS Machado, 3B DeJong, LF Fowler, CF Pham, RF Ozuna; a rotation headed by Martinez, Archer, Reyes/Weaver, Mikolas. And a bullpen that features Cecil, Lyons, Colome. That's a good base group to work around.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby chevyman58 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:53 pm

Do we think they'd walk away from Kelly? I was under the impression he was pretty secure as the franchise catcher of the future.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby R27 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 5:29 pm

chevyman58 wrote:Do we think they'd walk away from Kelly? I was under the impression he was pretty secure as the franchise catcher of the future.

With the renewal of Molina and the emergence of Knizner (.324/.371/.462, 4 HR in 51 AA games in 2017), I think they would. Knizner also was really the star of the Arizona Fall League this year. IMO, he's the future of the catcher position in STL, not Kelly at this point.

I think bringing Kelly up at the end of last season was trade marketing to talk about how he tutored under Molina. And now with the emergence of Knizner, Kelly's long-term prospects with the bat are not as important, so he can be Molina's backup without worrying too much about stunting his bat.

Assume Knizner plays in Memphis next year, ready to show up in STL in 2019. Splits time in 2020, started in 2021.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby mhardy_03 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 5:37 pm

chevyman58 wrote:Do we think they'd walk away from Kelly? I was under the impression he was pretty secure as the franchise catcher of the future.

I'm thinking they will, but ONLY in a deal to get a player like Archer. Who has huge upside and a very team friendly contract. Not for a 1 year guy like Machado or Donaldson.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby R27 » Wed Dec 20, 2017 9:16 am

Jumping off on the Donaldson rumors, it's been reported that the Jays still think they can win in 2018, and want any trade they make to keep them competitive in 2018. I think that's more about how they'd have to do a massive sell off if they let Donaldson go and they don't want to do that. So...

Donaldson to STL. Carpenter, Wacha, and Grichuk to TOR.

Archer and Colome to STL. Reyes, Kelly, Perez, Hudson, and Gomber to TBR.

Cardinals acquire their third baseman in Donaldson and give Toronto a lead off hitter and a power hitter, both things they lack. Grichuk in the AL East could be a 40 HR guy. They add Wacha to give them more depth in their rotation.

With Wacha gone, Cardinals need a starter and add Archer. They also get their closer in Colome. It's a high price to pay, but the Cardinals hold onto Flaherty, O'Neill, and Bader as well as Hicks and Gomber who are viewed as the two best pitchers in the system that are mostly flying under the radar for now.

Archer's locked up at $34M over 4 years if you pick up the two options. Colome has three years of arbitration. So you just have to worry about signing Donaldson or another comparable player next winter.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby mhardy_03 » Wed Dec 20, 2017 9:36 am

Ha! I guess I should have posted my proposal here instead of in the other thread. Thinking along very similar lines here.

mhardy_03 wrote:If I am the Cards, I am pushing Toronto to make a deal of something like Donaldson for Gyorko, Grichuk, and a pitching prospect, maybe Fernandez. You can argue that it will keep them competitive both this year and actually better in 2019-2020. They need a 3B until Vlad Jr is ready (he was at A+ ball in 2017). And with Gyorko's flexibility, he can also play 2B for them. Plus his bat will play great in the launching pad in Toronto. Grichuk fits for a similar reason. They need a RF right now and for the next few years. And then I just assume they would want a pitching prospect, but I'm honestly not sure what the 3rd piece would be. If they want an MLB piece, maybe include Wacha but take back J.A. Happ. Would save them money and give an extra year of control for a slightly lesser player. Also could be someone like Bader instead of Grichuk if that is who they preferred. But I would think that Grichuk's HR ability would be a good fit for them in Toronto. And I think the 3rd piece should be less if it is Bader instead of Grichuk.

In their current situation, they are 3rd place at best in 2018 with Donaldson, lose him to FA next year and are in an even worse spot going to 2019. Or if they do sign him long term, they block their best prospect. With this trade, they are probably still 3rd place at best but can "stay competitive" in 2018 while filling some other holes, not blocking their best prospect, have plenty of flexibility, and will be much better off in 2019 and after.

Get it done Mo! :lol:

I would do this first. I think any deal for Donaldson needs to include Gyorko if they really are serious about wanting to stay competitive. Otherwise they really don't have a 3B. Although I could see them taking Carpenter and playing him at 3B before eventually moving him to 1B when Vlad is ready. Would not be opposed to that either.

Then I like the offer for Archer, except I don't really want Colome coming along. I'd offer Flaherty, Kelly, Perez, and one of Hudson and Gomber.

Then sign Addison Reed and have a closer by committee so Matheny doesn't have a set pitcher with years of control to burn out by August.

Look to sign Donaldson immediately to a 5/125-150 deal that includes the 2018 season.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby Tulcard » Wed Dec 20, 2017 9:50 am

I wouldn't be giving up Reyes at all. Weaver, yes, but not Reyes.

Maybe I'm blind here, but I just can't see giving much up for a 1 year rental of either Donaldson or Machado. If they do I sure hope both sides say they would be willing to discuss an extension at some point. Not that that means much if heading to free agency is their ultimate goal. I'm just not sure Toronto doesn't wind up signing Donaldson to an extension themselves.

I'm comfortable with trading for Archer, Colome and Longoria. I think that would be a huge win for us.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby R27 » Wed Dec 20, 2017 1:17 pm

Tulcard wrote:I wouldn't be giving up Reyes at all. Weaver, yes, but not Reyes.

Maybe I'm blind here, but I just can't see giving much up for a 1 year rental of either Donaldson or Machado. If they do I sure hope both sides say they would be willing to discuss an extension at some point. Not that that means much if heading to free agency is their ultimate goal. I'm just not sure Toronto doesn't wind up signing Donaldson to an extension themselves.

I'm comfortable with trading for Archer, Colome and Longoria. I think that would be a huge win for us.

That's really why my approach for Donaldson is spare or unreliable pieces. I see Wacha as unreliable because who knows if and when his shoulder issue pops up again. I see Grichuk as a spare part and I think in a BAL/TOR/COL he would be a phenomenal power hitter. And Carpenter is really a man without a position in STL and individually, we have people that can do everything he does. We have someone who can lead off better, we have someone who can hit better, we have someone who can field better, and so on. He's good but he's not indispensable.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby Tulcard » Wed Dec 20, 2017 2:59 pm

I understand your points and don't mind if any of the three you mentioned were traded although I'm not totally sold on Weaver as yet and may want to see him included instead of Wacha. All depends who looks good in the eyes of your trading partner.

I would still try and see if the deal for Colome and Archer (hopefully) is still on the table and see what it would take to complete this deal first. Wacha may be of interest to the Rays as may Grichuk. I just like this deal better. (Longoria is gone as he was traded to the Giants.)

For me, as I think i've said before, I'm not in favor of giving up much for what is probably a 1 year rental. Just think it would be foolish.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby chevyman58 » Thu Dec 21, 2017 2:53 am

Longoria off the discussion table: Per MLB.com the Giants acquired longtime Rays third baseman Evan Longoria in a trade on Wednesday. The Rays' return included center fielder Denard Span, and three of the Giants' Top 30 prospects, per MLB Pipeline, infielder Christian Arroyo (No. 1), left-hander Matt Krook (No. 25) and right-hander Stephen Woods (No. 29). Tampa Bay also sent San Francisco cash considerations.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby R27 » Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:54 am

Tulcard wrote:I understand your points and don't mind if any of the three you mentioned were traded although I'm not totally sold on Weaver as yet and may want to see him included instead of Wacha. All depends who looks good in the eyes of your trading partner.

I would still try and see if the deal for Colome and Archer (hopefully) is still on the table and see what it would take to complete this deal first. Wacha may be of interest to the Rays as may Grichuk. I just like this deal better. (Longoria is gone as he was traded to the Giants.)

I'm not super sold on Wacha being able to give you enough innings. I think he's a good enough pitcher, just with the stress injury situation will never be a guy you can lean on during the season. You'll always have to watch him. And given how i see the Cardinals' rotation stacked up, he's basically their #2 starter this year.

I'm not sold on Weaver yet either, but it's creating a situation where you only have one less guy you're not sold on. And it's easier for the club to send Weaver to Memphis and bring up Flaherty, Hudson, Gomber, Hicks, Reyes, etc if he flops.

I see the Cards needing one more guy they can lean on during the season. Martinez is about it right now. Everyone else is either young (Weaver), old (Wainwright), oft-injured (Wacha), or unproven (Mikolas).
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby R27 » Thu Dec 21, 2017 3:14 pm

Lots of people throwing around "How about player X" on Twitter. And the free agent guys like Moustakas and Frazier are probably a best equals to Jedd.

Then I said, "The answer is not singing a player who is, at best (Gyorko)'s equal. Seems a waste of resources. It shouldn't be hard to go find someone better if indeed he isn't a starting caliber player."

And that was a moment I became okay with Gyorko as the starting third baseman.
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