2017 Be the GM Thread

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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby Topps » Wed Nov 22, 2017 7:58 am

I really don't see how the Giants compete with the Cards if it comes down to the return that the Marlins will get. There's no doubt in my mind that we've got the better farm system to offer. The money side of it though, I'm not so sure about.

I've got a feeling this thing is going to drag on a while though.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby Tulcard » Wed Nov 22, 2017 8:17 am

Hard to believe they would include Reyes. Marlins must be contributing mucho $$ to Stanton's salary if this would be so.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby R27 » Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:04 am

Topps wrote:I really don't see how the Giants compete with the Cards if it comes down to the return that the Marlins will get. There's no doubt in my mind that we've got the better farm system to offer. The money side of it though, I'm not so sure about.

I've got a feeling this thing is going to drag on a while though.

It comes down mostly to where Stanton wants to play. IMO, given what came out yesterday, it wouldn't surprise me if the Marlins are happy with what the Cardinals have offered and are trying to get the Giants to somewhere similar so they can present Stanton with multiple offers to reduce the risk of him saying no and torpedoing his trade value. Because if they take St. Louis' offer to Stanton and he vetoes the trade, San Francisco's going to go, "Well in that case, here's a new offer where we're giving you much less."

And if that's what they're doing, I don't really like our odds. I don't foresee Miami trying to force Stanton's hand into accepting a trade because I think he's content to stay in Miami. I don't think he needs to leave, but he'd like to for the right situation.

Tulcard wrote:Hard to believe they would include Reyes. Marlins must be contributing mucho $$ to Stanton's salary if this would be so.

IMO, Reyes is completely expendable. They plan to start him in the bullpen this year. So he'll relieve in 2018. Maybe 140-150 innings in 2019. Maybe 180 in 2020 in his first arbitration year. And then he's free to be pushed at that point with two arbitration years remaining. Always possible the club elects to lock him in for some free agency years too, but it's going to be a couple years until the club has an idea of what he can be over the long haul.

And maybe my view on this is because I've always been skeptical of him. His walk rate is too high to ever be an elite starting pitcher and guys don't just magically figure out their control in the Majors. I think his ceiling is a very good late innings reliever (think Rosenthal), but not elite there either.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby chevyman58 » Thu Nov 23, 2017 5:42 am

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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby Tulcard » Thu Nov 23, 2017 7:34 am

Hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby chevyman58 » Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:17 am

Sounds like the plan is Ozuna in Left, Pham in Center & Fowler in Right.

Hopefully Fowler will enthusiastically embrace the plan.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby chevyman58 » Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:34 pm

If there were no more moves:

1B Matt Carpenter
CF Tommy Pham
RF Dexter Fowler
LF Marcell Ozuna
SS Paul DeJong
3B Jedd Gyorko
C Yadier Molina
2B Kolten Wong

Randal Grichuk
Jose Martinez
Carson Kelly
Greg Garcia
Harrison Bader
Luke Voit
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby cardinalfan4life » Fri Dec 15, 2017 4:03 pm

Shouldn't Fowler bat leadoff instead of 3rd? I see 3-4 being Ozuna(unless he cant hit 35+ HRs) and Dejong
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby chevyman58 » Fri Dec 15, 2017 6:35 pm

cardinalfan4life wrote:Shouldn't Fowler bat leadoff instead of 3rd? I see 3-4 being Ozuna(unless he cant hit 35+ HRs) and Dejong


I haven't seen anything to indicate Fowler a far superior leadoff asset to Carp, particularly when Carp hasn't been near as effective anywhere else in the lineup. Fowler did show real production as a middle-order guy. I think DeJong needs a little more MLB time to settle-in before awarding him a 3-4 spot. Often a hitter regresses substantially in his 2nd year as teams have their book on him. Hopefully DeJong won't fall prey to that but we'll see. Also needs to get his plate discipline more refined, learn to take some BBs. He & Fowler have similar K rates but Fowler gets 3x the BBs.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby cardinalfan4life » Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:45 pm

very true in regards to a player like Dejong, he hit so well in 17 I forget he's a second year player. Ozuna should still bat third, while Ozuna wasn't the Marlin Outfielder I wanted because he's less proven than say Stanton he could be a bat we needed.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby R27 » Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:41 pm

I like that lineup. I think we'll see Molina no further than 6th though. Then I hope it's Wong 7 and Gyorko 8 to capitalize on Wong being on base ahead of Gyorko as often as possible.

I still think they need another hitter at 1B or 3B.

I also would still like to see them trade Carpenter and use Fowler or Pham at leadoff. But I don't see that happening. Carpenter is viewed too highly by the organization. Carpenter is very good at getting on base, but he is not a spark plug.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby chevyman58 » Sat Dec 16, 2017 6:44 am

We should probably be doing cartwheels & lighting fireworks over this Ozuna landing. I didn't quite realize the year he just had.

He won his first Gold Glove in 2017 in left field. He finished first among all four-hole hitters in the NL (minimum 400 at-bats) with a .548 slugging percentage and .924 OPS. His .372 on-base percentage and .306 average from that spot ranked second. His 88 RBIs placed him third.

Better acquisition than Fowler was when he was our big-name FA signing. Best acquisition since Holliday.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby R27 » Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:06 am

Someone pointed out that Ozuna drove in 124 runs last year while batting fourth behind Gordon (.341 OBP), Yelich (.369 OBP), and Stanton (.376 OBP) and will now be batting behind Carpenter (.384 OBP), Pham (.411 OBP), and Fowler (.363 OBP). And on top of that, he won't have a guy hitting 60 home runs in front of him emptying the bases. Odds are good that he'll get an opportunity to exceed that number this year in STL.

With no further additions, the Cardinals have six guys who can hit 20+ home runs in their lineup. And Grichuk on the bench could if he got enough playing time.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby Tulcard » Sat Dec 16, 2017 11:14 am

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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby chevyman58 » Sat Dec 16, 2017 1:43 pm

R27 wrote:Someone pointed out that Ozuna drove in 124 runs last year while batting fourth behind Gordon (.341 OBP), Yelich (.369 OBP), and Stanton (.376 OBP) and will now be batting behind Carpenter (.384 OBP), Pham (.411 OBP), and Fowler (.363 OBP). And on top of that, he won't have a guy hitting 60 home runs in front of him emptying the bases. Odds are good that he'll get an opportunity to exceed that number this year in STL.

With no further additions, the Cardinals have six guys who can hit 20+ home runs in their lineup. And Grichuk on the bench could if he got enough playing time.


As I noted above he had 88 RBI from the 4-hole, the 124 were his total from all spots. 1/2 the difference were from the 6-hole. But, I get what you're saying, he should be at least as RBI-productive with us.

Recall that through much of the season we had the worst 3-4 production in MLB last year.

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