2017 Be the GM Thread

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chevyman58
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby chevyman58 » Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:19 pm

marteezy wrote:
As for Moustakas, I like him because of the defense he brings to the table.


?????

Gyorko was fantastic defensively at 3B this season, really fantastic. He's signed for at least 2 more seasons ('20 Option).

And, somewhat related, Diaz made a couple phenomenal plays there on Saturday.

Hey, I'm not married to anybody here except Yadi & then to Pham at least thru April '18. They can ALL go. But not just because you don't like them personally or because you form a performance opinion of them based upon your conjured-up fake news.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby marteezy » Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:41 pm

chevyman58 wrote:
marteezy wrote:As for horrible base running, the only player that is worse than Carpenter is Piscotty.


WRONG

What, exactly, do you base this statement on?


Numbers and my eyes. Looking at the stats, you are correct, he’s not the worst, but he’s one of the worst.

Defensively, Gyorko was good this year, but for a team that has struggled defensively the last few years and lost games because of poor defense, getting someone at a critical position that is a legit defensive third baseman would seem to me to be a priority.

Like I said, I believe there is a spot for Gyorko, I think he’s best suited as a supersub type. And since the Padres are still paying a chunk of his contract, you can afford to have him in that role. You aren’t forced to have him as an everyday player.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby R27 » Mon Oct 02, 2017 2:17 pm

marteezy wrote:If he gets hurt again, I’d much rather him get hurt in St. Louis than Memphis.

Except if he gets hurt in Memphis, it doesn't count towards his service time. That's also something worth considering. If you keep him down in Memphis for half a year, that should be another year of team control. My stance is when he's healthy, you build him up to 5 innings every 5 days in Memphis and then pull him up midseason. "It'll be just like a trade."

marteezy wrote:As for Moustakas, I like him because of the defense he brings to the table. A skilled glove at third will take a bit of pressure off of DeJong. And since he’s still just south of 30, his numbers at the plate have improved enough to where the optimist can see him continuing to get better for a couple years. However, his numbers lend some validity to skepticism. That said, he’d be an improvement in my opinion and Gyorko would be better in his role of supersub if you can limit him to under 400 at bats.

Gyorko is a legit defensive third baseman at this point. 2nd in defensive runs saved, 9th in UZR there this year. If you want to reduce the odds of us blowing a game defensively, third base is the wrong position to look at. He was a plus defender at third last season too. Meanwhile Moustakas was terrible at third base this year, and when you look at his UZR breakdowns it is all based on a drop in his range. How much of that is leftover from his ACL injury and can be regained?

So Gyorko and Donaldson both better options defensively. One of those costs you nothing to acquire and one of those is a safe bet to be an offensive improvement and the other one is Mike Moustakas. I don't see the value. Cards have more than enough infield utility guys that they don't need to relegate Gyorko to utility duty. And Gyorko as a utility man threatens Wong at second base.He took off this year and it remains a pattern that whenever he is secure in his everyday job, he plays better. The last thing the Cards need is to make Wong question his standing, IMO. It's all about putting guys in positions to succeed.

As far as Carpenter and baserunning. By UBR, Carpenter (-0.8), Piscotty (-1.1), Gyorko (-2.2), DeJong (-3.3), and Molina (-3.9) were the five biggest offenders among Cardinals position players.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby chevyman58 » Mon Oct 02, 2017 2:54 pm

MT, my problem with targeting Carpenter is they all sucked, except for Yadi. Seriously, if you look at the players carried over from last year everybody declined substantially except Yadi. One could say Wong too, but this season was so cut-'n-paste for him he's a tough comparative. And he completely tanked at crunch time. Maybe Gyorko, but he collapsed in the 2nd half.

Carp didn't have near the decline the others did, most of his important production numbers were better than last year. Compared to Piscotty, Diaz, Grichuk, Garcia & Peralta year-to-year ol' Carp was pretty darn good, And pretty good period.

But he can go - just improve the lineup in his place.

Let's face it folks, but for bringing up Pham, DeJong & JMart as everyday players we'd have been out of this season 2 months ago.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby mhardy_03 » Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:45 pm

Donaldson and Yelich are my targets. Maybe a pitcher in FA depending on what those guys end up costing. Grichuk, Piscotty, Gyorko out in trades.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby Topps » Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:43 pm

Definitely need some pitching in my opinion. I like the young guys we've got coming up but I'd feel better with one more proven guy in the rotation. Doesn't have to be an ace. A solid 3/4 would be good.

Waino/Wacha are ?s with injuries, still waiting to see if CMart can mature and take that next step.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby marteezy » Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:19 pm

mhardy_03 wrote:Donaldson and Yelich are my targets. Maybe a pitcher in FA depending on what those guys end up costing. Grichuk, Piscotty, Gyorko out in trades.


What am I missing on Donaldson. He’s going to be 32 years old on opening day. While he hits homers, he strikes out a ton and given his age, it’s safe to assume that we would be trading for the worst years of his career instead of getting peak years.

So why would I want to trade prospects for him when I can get Moustakas for a draft pick, or just keep Gyorko and hope that he can replicate what he’s done the last two seasons?

Christian Yelich is another one. He strikes out a ton, isn’t necessarily a long ball threat, but once again. If we make a substantial improvement at third, we can turn RF over to a Bader or Sierra if we want to add athleticism and speed, or we can turn it over to O’Neill if we want to add some thump.

And while JD Martinez is something like a defensive nightmare in right, he would be the legitimate, middle of the order power threat that we so dearly need. And you don’t have to trade an asset for him.

You can then use some of your outfield depth to add to the rotation and or bolster the bullpen.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby R27 » Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:06 pm

It's one year for Donaldson, and that gets you to the big free agent class next winter. And Donaldson is about the only person the last few years who can hold a candle to Mike Trout in the discussion of who has been the best player in baseball. Striking out ~120 times a year isn't really striking out "a ton" in today's game. He was still a 4.7 WAR player this year even after sucking for a month after a knee injury he had to deal with (which was also the reason for not trading for him this summer, IMO). He's easily capable of being a 6 WAR position player and there were only 13 of them in baseball last year. Even if he was only a 5 WAR player, there was only 26 of them this year.

And even with that month, he would have been the second best Cardinal player this year. And maybe the difference between talking about 2018 and the 2017 NLDS right now.

In all reality though, if the Cardinals are going to "go young" as they've suggested. It doesn't make any sense to make a push for 2018. They should just officially make it a transition year and make every decision based on what will help the 2019 team the most.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby cardinalfan4life » Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:18 pm

Topps wrote:Definitely need some pitching in my opinion. I like the young guys we've got coming up but I'd feel better with one more proven guy in the rotation. Doesn't have to be an ace.


and who exactly is the Ace? its not Waino....Martinez looks like a #2 or 3 at this point because f his mentality, kinda remind me of Andujar.

but really, there is no Pitcher today that defines my definition of "ACE"

We do need to upgrade the pitching staff and bullpen, we also need a legitmate power bat, but were not going to find a Judge type in FA
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby Topps » Tue Oct 03, 2017 7:15 am

cardinalfan4life wrote:
Topps wrote:Definitely need some pitching in my opinion. I like the young guys we've got coming up but I'd feel better with one more proven guy in the rotation. Doesn't have to be an ace.


and who exactly is the Ace? its not Waino....Martinez looks like a #2 or 3 at this point because f his mentality, kinda remind me of Andujar.

but really, there is no Pitcher today that defines my definition of "ACE"

We do need to upgrade the pitching staff and bullpen, we also need a legitmate power bat, but were not going to find a Judge type in FA


There's definitely not an ace on the staff at this point. Obviously, Waino was but doesn't fit that mold any more. CMart is supposed to be but hasn't gotten there yet. I'm just suggesting that they don't have to spend the money on an ace. They've got a solid group of pitchers, I'd be content with 5 solid guys. It would be nice to have a true ace on the staff but there are so many needs that I don't know if they'll spend the money to sign that true #1 starter.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby chevyman58 » Tue Oct 03, 2017 8:07 am

What potential 'Ace' is out there this offseason?

Seems to me Lynn is one of the better starters entering free agency.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby Topps » Tue Oct 03, 2017 8:29 am

chevyman58 wrote:What potential 'Ace' is out there this offseason?

Seems to me Lynn is one of the better starters entering free agency.


I still think they should bring Lynn back. Don't see it happening though.

There really are few guys out there pitching wise for free agents this season that could be top of the rotation guys. The few that stand out to me are Darvish, Vargas, and Arrieta.

A trade for pitching may be the better option. I'm not sure what TB would want for Archer but he's one that been talked about being moved for a good bit now.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby R27 » Tue Oct 03, 2017 9:42 am

Topps wrote:
chevyman58 wrote:What potential 'Ace' is out there this offseason?

Seems to me Lynn is one of the better starters entering free agency.


I still think they should bring Lynn back. Don't see it happening though.

There really are few guys out there pitching wise for free agents this season that could be top of the rotation guys. The few that stand out to me are Darvish, Vargas, and Arrieta.

A trade for pitching may be the better option. I'm not sure what TB would want for Archer but he's one that been talked about being moved for a good bit now.

I see a lot of red flags around Archer. 4+ ERA the last two seasons. HR/9 is way up (that's what most people point me to when they tell me signing Lynn is a bad idea). I just don't see the Cardinals contending if they let Lynn walk. I don't see how you let your best performing starting pitcher walk out the door and expect to be better next year.

Yes, we have good young pitchers. But the odds of any of our minor league pitchers being to replicate Lynn's performance over his last three seasons over any three season period in their careers is incredibly slim. 3.06 ERA, 129 ERA+. Not even Carlos Martinez's last three seasons tops that. A month ago Lynn was heading into September on the verge of a career year performance-wise. He seems to have run out of gas, but he was phenomenal this year. Especially in a year returning from TJ.

Weaver had a great run, but 10 starts to finish out a season and taking the ball every 5 days for 32 are completely different animals. And I don't see any free agent pitcher I'd rather pay than Lynn.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby marteezy » Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:07 am

There is a lot to like about our rotation. People seem to forget that Carlos Martinez just turned 26 a couple weeks ago. The guy is young and still learning his craft. He is our ace, hands down. When Waino was 25, he was far from ace material. People need to be patient with the guy. He has legitimate top of the rotation stuff, he will get there.

The young guys Weaver and Flaherty showed me a lot this year. Weaver looks like he will develop into a legit top of the rotation arm and Flagerty just looks flat nasty. I saw him pitch against the Padres and was very impressed with the grit he showed that game. There were a couple points where he could’ve gave in but he buckled down. He will be a major contributor next season.

Wacha looked good but that shoulder scares the heck out of me.

Reyes will make a significant contribution next season.

Waino in my opinion is no longer an option in the rotation. I think he’s best served comingnout of the back of the pen.

I think they should use some that outfield depth to enhance the rotation a bit because there really isn’t anything out there that you’d want to spend free agency money on.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby chevyman58 » Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:46 am

marteezy wrote:Weaver looks like he will develop into a legit top of the rotation arm.


I hope you're right.

He'll have to throw 80% curveballs to succeed. His arm will fall off. I don't think he can be top-of-the-rotation guy with a 90 mph straight fastball.

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