2017 Be the GM Thread

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R27
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby R27 » Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:50 am

chevyman58 wrote:
marteezy wrote:Weaver looks like he will develop into a legit top of the rotation arm.


I hope you're right.

He'll have to throw 80% curveballs to succeed. His arm will fall off. I don't think he can be top-of-the-rotation guy with a 90 mph straight fastball.

Part of the problem with guys who don't have that trick high five fastball in their back pocket is when they're right, they're unhittable. But when they're not, the ball is going to go a long way.

That's really what makes Martinez look special. He has both the trick high five fastball and the offspeed stuff. And he's able to throw them both for strikes.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby mhardy_03 » Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:51 am

marteezy wrote:
mhardy_03 wrote:Donaldson and Yelich are my targets. Maybe a pitcher in FA depending on what those guys end up costing. Grichuk, Piscotty, Gyorko out in trades.


What am I missing on Donaldson. He’s going to be 32 years old on opening day. While he hits homers, he strikes out a ton and given his age, it’s safe to assume that we would be trading for the worst years of his career instead of getting peak years.

So why would I want to trade prospects for him when I can get Moustakas for a draft pick, or just keep Gyorko and hope that he can replicate what he’s done the last two seasons?

Christian Yelich is another one. He strikes out a ton, isn’t necessarily a long ball threat, but once again. If we make a substantial improvement at third, we can turn RF over to a Bader or Sierra if we want to add athleticism and speed, or we can turn it over to O’Neill if we want to add some thump.

And while JD Martinez is something like a defensive nightmare in right, he would be the legitimate, middle of the order power threat that we so dearly need. And you don’t have to trade an asset for him.

You can then use some of your outfield depth to add to the rotation and or bolster the bullpen.

K rate:
Donaldson: 22.4%
Yelich: 19.7%
All of MLB: 21.6%

BB rate:
Donaldson: 15.3%
Yelich: 11.5%
All of MLB: 8.5%

Neither of them strike out a ton relative to the league. And both walk well over league average. The only time that strikeouts become a real concern is when a guy doesn't have plate discipline. Both of them do.

Donaldson vs Moustakas:
They aren't comparable. Moustakas' best full year (this year) was a 116 OPS+. Donaldson's worst full year (2014) was a 127 OPS+. They aren't comparable at the plate and Donaldson is a much better fielder. Donaldson is an absolute stud at the plate. You aren't getting him for some massive long term deal either, so the fact that he is 32 really doesn't matter. And like R27 said, it is a 1 year thing until the huge FA class of next offseason.

I wouldn't be upset with Martinez. But he is going to get a TON of money coming off his career season and it will carry into his decline years.

Yelich:
Career per 150 games:
Home: 82 R, 156 H, 30 2B, 5 3B, 8 HR, 54 RBI, .278/.363/.396/.759
Road: 90 R, 180 H, 38 2B, 1 3B, 19 HR, 83 RBI, .301/.374/.465/.839

Last season (age 24):
Home: 35 R, 74 H, 15 2B, 0 3B, 8 HR, 40 RBI, .272/.359/.415/.774 (114 wRC+)
Road: 43 R, 98 H, 23 2B, 3 3B, 13 HR, 58 RBI, .320/.392/.542/.934 (147 wRC+)

This season (age 25):
Home: 44 R, 78 H, 12 2B, 2 3B, 7 HR, 34 RBI, .265/.352/.391/.743 (103 wRC+)
Road: 56 R, 92 H, 24 2B, 0 3B, 11 HR, 47 RBI, .299/.385/.484/.869 (127 wRC+)

Combined last 2 seasons:
Home: 79 R, 152 H, 27 2B, 2 3B, 15 HR, 74 RBI, .269/.355/.403/.758 (108 wRC+)
Road: 99 R, 190 H, 47 2B, 3 3B, 24 HR, 105 RBI, .309/.388/.513/.901 (137 wRC+)

If you look at any of the articles written about him, he hits the ball extremely hard but battles with hitting it on the ground too much at times. And he hits it to all fields. Plus would be left handed to help balance the lineup out and although he is much better against RHP, he isn't completely useless against LHP to the point that he needs to be benched.

His road numbers from this season would make him the 2nd best full time hitter on the team behind Pham. He is 25, showing that he is still on the rise, and is signed to a very team friendly deal for 5 more years through his age 30 season. He would be a huge help to the lineup for the next 5 years. What is not to like?
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby chevyman58 » Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:51 am

And he got CRUSHED his last two starts - just when we needed him most.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby Topps » Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:52 am

By no means am I writing off Martinez being the staff ace. I just wonder when he takes that next step as I said above. He is still young and there is time, it's a matter of if and when.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby chevyman58 » Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:53 am

Since we're active here in the GM thread today & discussing pitching -

Adam Wainwright will undergo an elbow arthroscopy procedure TODAY to have a piece of cartilage shaved down. It's the same procedure Wainwright had following the 2014 season.

The medical staff has advised Wainwright that he'll need six weeks of recovering before beginning the rehab process. He expects to be fully healthy by the time Spring Training starts in February and should be able to engage in a normal offseason throwing program.

http://m.cardinals.mlb.com/news/article ... w-surgery/
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby R27 » Tue Oct 03, 2017 5:37 pm

Jim Hickey just became available. If I'm the Cardinals, I'm giving him a call right now. Spent the last 10 years with the Rays, very well regarded in the game and has lots of experience working with and developing young pitchers.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby chevyman58 » Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:28 pm

All anyone had to do was watch BoSox/Astros today & 1st inning of Yanks/Indians to realize Fowler has no business playing CF.

I don't know if Pham or Bader or Sierra are the 2018 answer but we cannot have Fowler out there next season. No Way.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby chevyman58 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 6:34 am

It appears The Eye Test is supported by stats. Fowler near-worst starting CF'r in MLB.

Of the 17 players to log at least 900 innings in center field, Fowler ranked 16th with negative-18 Defensive Runs Saved and 15th with an Ultimate Zone Rating of -5.9. Mozeliak skirted around whether Fowler will return as the team's starting center fielder.

Before free agency opens in November, the Cardinals will be making several changes to their 40-man roster. Four FA's -- Lynn, Juan Nicasio, Seung Hwan Oh and Zach Duke -- will drop off, while two players currently on the 60-day DL -- Alex Reyes and Trevor Rosenthal -- will go on.


http://m.cardinals.mlb.com/news/article ... son-plans/
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby R27 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 9:25 am

Of the 17 players to log at least 900 innings in center field, Fowler ranked 16th with negative-18 Defensive Runs Saved and 15th with an Ultimate Zone Rating of -5.9. Mozeliak skirted around whether Fowler will return as the team's starting center fielder.

I loved Mo's quote when asked about Fowler being guaranteed CF. "I don't recall guaranteeing anything except a lot of money."
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby marteezy » Fri Oct 06, 2017 9:28 am

I agree, while Pham isn’t likely to win a gold glove, he does play a good CF. Fowler in left would make that outfield defense pretty solid.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby chevyman58 » Mon Oct 09, 2017 5:50 pm

So ........ by name & by later inference, apparently Gyorko & Cecil & Fowler kinda do their own thing.

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/cardinals- ... 44258.html

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/ ... user-share

Perhaps it's not coincidence that Yadi's a lifetime Cardinal & the other Three Best Performers this season were Memphis Redbirds.

When teams are winning, the chess set, Brett Cecil’s video games and Jedd Gyorko’s ping pong prowess are embraced as great ways of relieving stress. When teams are winning, teammates hardly ever bother to notice or even care if Dexter Fowler is usually the last guy in the clubhouse and one of the first to leave.

When teams struggle, though, teammates roll their eyes and pay close attention to the new guys. They complain and moan if they return to the home clubhouse after a pivotal late September game and realize that one of their veterans has practically beat the fans out of Busch Stadium after the final out. They notice if that veteran even bothered to go to the dugout or if he shagged balls in the outfield more than a dozen times all season.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby marteezy » Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:13 pm

I found the fact that those three players were called out by name to be very interesting. Two of the three have a no trade clause, but if they are getting roasted in the local paper, they may suddenly become inspired to waive that. And the third player is about to start getting paid big cash, even though the Padres are on the hook for some of it.

Very interesting indeed. That said, I don’t like it. I think it’s beneath the organization to engage in that kinda pettiness. The team stunk this year and I don’t believe for a second ping pong, video games or arrival and departure times had anything to do with it.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby R27 » Tue Oct 10, 2017 9:18 am

There was one game where Fowler spent it in a suite with his wife and some others instead of being in the dugout, even though he wasn't going to play that day. I can imagine that rubbing players the wrong way. They're out there fighting for their playoff chances and you can't even be bothered to sit in the dugout for 3 hours and support them? But showing up last (important to note, not late) and being quick to leave when you've got a young family, I can't really blame a guy like Fowler for. He was far better performance-wise after his family moved to St. Louis in May than he was before.

Regardless of who, it's definitely yet another giant flashing sign that the chemistry in the clubhouse is off. Yet nothing seems to have been done to correct it. These problems existed before at least Cecil and Fowler got here. Fowler was supposed to help, but as a new player, if you don't hit the ground running on the field, it's hard to lead. Struggling out of the gate took his legs out from underneath him in that department.
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby mhardy_03 » Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:09 am

R27 wrote:Regardless of who, it's definitely yet another giant flashing sign that the chemistry in the clubhouse is off. Yet nothing seems to have been done to correct it. These problems existed before at least Cecil and Fowler got here. Fowler was supposed to help, but as a new player, if you don't hit the ground running on the field, it's hard to lead. Struggling out of the gate took his legs out from underneath him in that department.

Wasn't this clubhouse chemistry what Matheny was supposed to be good at? If his clubhouse is getting away from him and it is already known he isn't good at in game moves, why exactly is he still the manager? Is there another side to managing that he is still good at?
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Re: 2017 Be the GM Thread

Postby marteezy » Tue Oct 10, 2017 1:44 pm

That’s what I’m wondering. What the heck is he there for if he isn’t good at what he’s supposed to be best at? But ultimately, the performance of this team comes down to accountability or lack thereof and an erosion of the most basic baseball fundamentals.

Matheny’s inability to hold the entire roster and staff accountable, is problematic. Last year they talked about the emphasis on fundamentals and that really didn’t improve that much. So we know strategically he’s less than stellar, his inability to lead his team and coaches challenges the notion that he’s a good leader of men, so why was he given that gracious extension and why should anyone believe that he’s going to change his performance for the better?

Yes, the players have some say in the execution of fundamentals, but the boss is always held accountable if the players can’t execute.

And Mo doesn’t get a free pass in this. He put together the rosters.

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