gocardinals1511 wrote:If I find the time I may look through cch for the original dissucsion. I think when I proposed the lottery it was for all 16 teams. R27 added the 3 in 5. The league voted for only the top 5 to lotto. I was against the 3 in 5 to start but after watching it play out and rebuilding through it I am a fan. (Don't tell r27 I said that) you can't tank your way to a good team you have to rebuild by more then drafting top players. It took me a year to get my team where I wanted it. I was in eligible and tradedy pick for a deal I liked. I almost just held on to but got an offer I liked.
I would be interest in adding all 16 spots and see how that plays out for 10 seasons. Besides that I'm for leaving it alone it's working just fine.
I guess I just worry that the league is getting pretty top-heavy again. I was full blown in favor of the lotto when we first instituted it and it's done the job of limiting the advantages of tanking. The lotto hurt me in this last rebuild, but I get that its the nature of the beast. Not every team owner is going to have the knowledge or time to invest in understanding how to work around it though and I see how it can become discouraging. I'm not usually one to say "lets make it a bit easier for people" but if it's the same 6-8 teams going deep into the playoffs every year, we're going to start losing owners.
That's just my opinion on it. I can see both sides of the argument. I'm still in favor of removing the ineligibility rules, but expanding the lottery.
I think the league seems a little more top-heavy because a couple active owners replaced a couple inactive ones and immediately are having success. Montreal has been incredible since he took over. CF4L is going all in but he is very competitive and should be for at least the next 5 or so years. The league is always going to be somewhat top-heavy because it is semi-casual. We have some very active owners, some semi-active owners, and some who basically just set their roster and lineup and don't bother to make moves at all or really even scout draft lists.
Agree that more rules is probably worse for a league like we have. If it was fully active and competitive, then we could look into more depth for rules, but it really seems like the simpler the better as long as it is doing the job it was intended to do. Let's just look at some numbers while I have it in mind.
Seasons of lottery: 29
Top seed to win top pick: 8
#2 seeds to win top pick: 6
#3 seeds to win top pick: 5
Teams outside lottery to win top 3 pick: 24
I mean, I think it is working as expected. If you truly suck, you have a good chance at the top pick, but you are far from guaranteed it. And winning it multiple years is VERY unlikely. You can't just tank for 4 years, get top picks, and dominate because with the lottery you are likely to get a #1, #2, and #3 pick instead of 3 #1s.
From worst record:
Odds of 2 straight #1s: 11.3%
Odds of 3 straight #1s: 3.8%
Odds of 4 straight #1s: 1.3%
Let's just keep it simple. 16 teams in lottery, no extra rules. If things change in the next 10 or so seasons, we can look at it again.